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(Current Affairs) Economy & Energy | January: 2017

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Economy

Economist believe demonetisation has reduced economic momentum

  • The Centre’s decision to withdraw high value banknotes couldn’t have come at a worse time for the recovering Indian economy as the cash crunch that resulted from the sudden demonetisation crimped all-round demand.
  • Starting 2016 on a relatively weak base with gross value added (GVA) growth at 6.9 per cent and GDP growth at 7.2 per cent in December 2015 — economic momentum recovered towards the middle of the year.
  • GDP growth in March accelerated to 7.9 per cent and GVA growth rose to 7.4 per cent.
  • Although the upsurge hit a hurdle in June, with GDP growth for the second quarter of FY17 falling to its slowest rate in six quarters at 7.1 per cent.
  • A good monsoon and an imminent pick-up in demand seemed to have placed the economy in a sweet spot for higher growth, investments and, possibly, job creation.
  • The Centre's move to withdraw high value currency notes in November altered that script, though the government is confident that deferred consumption will still spur growth once the initial shock of the move is absorbed.
  • On the infrastructure side, the main sticking point — non-performing assets — remains a problem independent of the effect of demonetisation, with banks not willing to lend for such projects.
  • The index of industrial production on average contracted by 0.1 per cent over the January-to-October period, with private investment faring very poorly and any growth in the index being mostly driven by consumption.
  • The index reached its lowest level in the year in July, when it contracted 2.55 per cent. The best performance was in the preceding month, when the index grew 2.18 per cent.
  • Retail inflation slowed significantly over the year, while the contraction in wholesale prices reversed.
  • This meant that the growth rates of the Consumer Price Index and the Wholesale Price Index converged — coming the closest to each other in November, when the CPI grew at 3.6 per cent and the WPI at 3.15 per cent.
  • Growth in gross value added has been slowing since the fourth quarter of the previous financial year (quarter ended March 2016), when it was 7.4 per cent.
  • GVA growth for the second quarter of this financial year was 7.1 per cent, which is the lowest it has been since the quarter ended December 2015.
  • That was before the demonetisation announcement, which economists said would dampen growth in the last two quarters of the fiscal.
  • The current account deficit has contracted sharply over the last two years, with the amount touching $3.4 billion in September 2016, down from $10.9 billion in September 2014.
  • The CAD touched a more than two-year low in the quarters ended March and June, coming in at just $300 million.

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